How the Expansion Score is calculated
Last updated: June 14, 2026
The short version
The Expansion Score is a number from 0 to 100 that says how aggressively a brand is pushing into new product categories. It reads five signals out of a brand's USPTO trademark filings, weights them, and rolls them into one figure. It measures direction and momentum, not how big the company is. A giant brand that has stopped expanding can sit in the red. A small brand filing into new classes every quarter can sit in the green.
What the score actually measures
Trademarks are filed under NICE classes, which are the 45 categories the USPTO uses to group goods and services. When a coffee company suddenly files in the class that covers clothing, or software, or financial services, that is a signal. It is usually planning to sell something new under the same name.
The Expansion Score tries to catch that movement early. A high score does not mean a brand is valuable or well known. It means the brand is busy reaching into categories it was not in before. That is a different question from size, and it is the one we found most useful for spotting where a brand is heading next.
The five signals
Each signal is scored from 0 to 100 on its own, then weighted. Four of them add to the score. The fifth, abandonment, pulls it back down.
| Signal | What it looks at | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Filing frequency | How many trademarks the brand filed in the last 12 months. Ten or more filings hits the ceiling. | 30% |
| Class spread | How many distinct NICE classes the brand covers across its whole portfolio. Fifteen or more classes hits the ceiling. | 20% |
| New categories | How many classes the brand entered for the first time in the last six months. Five or more new classes hits the ceiling. | 25% |
| Velocity | Filing rate in the last six months against the six months before that. Tripling the rate hits the ceiling. Flat or slowing scores zero. | 15% |
| Abandonment | Share of the brand's filings that were abandoned. This one is subtracted. Half the portfolio abandoned applies the full penalty. | −10% |
The first two signals describe where a brand already is. The next two describe where it is going, which is why new categories and velocity together carry 40% of the weight. The abandonment penalty stops a brand from gaming the score by filing widely and then walking away from most of it.
The formula
Each signal score is multiplied by its weight, the four positive signals are added, the abandonment penalty is subtracted, and the result is clamped to the 0 to 100 range.
score = (filing_frequency × 0.30)
+ (class_spread × 0.20)
+ (new_categories × 0.25)
+ (velocity × 0.15)
− (abandonment × 0.10)
clamped to 0–100
A worked example
Take a brand with 20 filings on record. In the last 12 months it filed 6 trademarks, it covers 9 NICE classes in total, it entered 2 of those classes for the first time in the last six months, it filed 4 marks in the last six months against 2 in the six before that, and 1 of its 20 filings was abandoned. Here is how each signal lands.
| Signal | Raw | Score | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Filing frequency | 6 of 10 | 60 | 18.0 |
| Class spread | 9 of 15 | 60 | 12.0 |
| New categories | 2 of 5 | 40 | 10.0 |
| Velocity | 2.0× rate | 50 | 7.5 |
| Abandonment | 1 of 20 | 10 | −1.0 |
| Expansion Score | 47 | ||
That lands at 46.5, which shows as 47 on the badge: a mid-range, amber score. The brand is expanding steadily but is not in a land grab.
What the colours mean
70 to 100
Aggressively expanding
40 to 69
Expanding steadily
Below 40
Focused or defending
Questions people ask
Why does a huge, famous brand sometimes score low?
Because the score rewards movement into new categories, not the size of what a brand already owns. A brand that has locked down its categories and is now just renewing and defending them will score low. That is not a knock on the brand. It is the score doing its job.
Is a low score a bad thing?
No. A low score means focused, not failing. Plenty of strong brands stay in their lane on purpose. The score is useful when you want to know who is on the move, not who is winning.
How often does the score change?
It is recalculated as new USPTO filing data comes in. We keep each brand's previous score too, so a profile can show whether its momentum is rising or falling.
Where can I see it?
Every brand search result and every brand profile shows the badge. You can also filter and sort search results by score to find the fastest-moving brands in any class.
Want to see it in action? Search for a brand and watch the scores, or filter by score range to find who is expanding fastest.
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